It's an issue that's very important to three in four Democrats and most of them don't think the party is doing enough to protect access to abortion. The issue of abortion may be one area of disappointment for some Democrats.

They're not switching votes, but they're about 20 points less likely to vote this year than those Democrats who approve of Mr. Biden has been progressive enough, and don't think he's fighting for issues that matter to them. Biden - and they are staying home in higher numbers than other Democrats. There are one in five Democrats who disapprove of Mr. Biden than Democrats are in their approval of him. Republicans are more unified in their disapproval of Mr. Two-thirds of women under 50 describe the Republican Party as 'extreme,' the descriptor they most often selected to use for the GOP.īut the Democrats may not have all the answers for them, either: most of them think Democrats are not doing enough to protect abortion rights. To women under 50, abortion is just as important an issue as the economy and inflation. Add to that a modest Republican turnout advantage even among older voters and it becomes clear why Democrats are trailing. And they constitute the least likely age group to say they'll definitely vote this year. Just a third of registered voters under 30 feel very enthusiastic about voting this year, lower than their older counterparts. While 2018 set a record for youth turnout in midterm elections, 2022 so far looks to be a return to normal, lower patterns. Younger voters are the most supportive of Democrats - and the least likely to turn out. Younger voters and turnout: a problem for Democrats? In all, this looks like a key factor in 2022, just as in the last midterm. So, will they switch or just sit out? There's a gender gap on enthusiasm: women are less likely than men to say they're very enthusiastic about voting, by double digits. Why? The direction of the country, which they think is bad, much more so than how they feel about Biden. There are a double-digit number of undecideds in this group, setting them up to be a key group to watch over the next months. They won White women with college degrees by a whopping 20 points today, their lead among the latter is just six. That includes six in 10 women with college degrees.Īnd yet, in the 2018 midterms Democrats won women by 19 points today that's cut in half. Women are more likely to call Democrats than Republicans caring and reasonable - but also give the Republicans an edge on being effective, and half of women call Democrats weak.Īnd another of Republicans' challenges with women: by two to one, women say a Republican Congress would make things worse rather than better for women. Women have at best a mixed set of descriptions for Democrats right now, but use a lot of negative descriptions for Republicans. Biden, and those who do are no likelier to be voting Democratic this year than other Democrats. Only four in 10 Democrats say their vote is based a lot on their feelings about Mr. Their negative views of him are motivating them, and they're far more likely than Democrats to say their vote is based 'a lot' on how they feel about him. That's driven largely by Republicans, two-thirds of whom still don't consider Mr. The Biden effect looks net-negative: those weighing him 'a lot' in their midterm vote are breaking Republican by two to one - maybe not a surprise given his low approval ratings. What's the Biden factor?įorty-seven percent of voters say how they feel about President Biden is driving a lot of their midterm calculus. Democrats who say the economy is bad are less enthusiastic about voting than those who think the economy is good. Many Democratic voters share sour views of the economy, too, and while it is not making them abandon the party, it may make some stay home: Democrats who are feeling the impacts of higher food and gas prices are less enthusiastic about voting and less likely to say they'll turn out. Independents who say the economy is bad break Republican. Independents who cite economy and inflation as top concerns plan to vote for a Republican this fall.

The trouble for Democrats now is that far more voters today say the economy is bad - and this time Democrats are in power. In the last midterm elections, in 2018, the party out of power (then, the Democrats) also won the votes of those who said the economy was bad. Republicans are leading among those who say inflation is 'very important' in their vote, as well as those feeling 'a lot' of impact from higher food and gas prices. It's giving the GOP some votes and may depress Democratic turnout. What's the impact of inflation and the economy?

Midterm house results